NEWARK, NJ — While Major League baseball players are starting to head back to spring training, New Jersey Institute of Technology associate professor Bruce Bukiet recently released his mathematical-based predictions for which teams will come out on top this season.
Bukiet, the associate dean of the College of Science and Liberal Arts at NJIT, forms his predictions on a mathematical model he developed in 2000.
"I publish these numbers to promote the power and relevance of math," he says. "We've long had a problem convincing US youngsters to embrace mathematics in school. Studying how math applies to baseball demonstrates not only that math can be fun, but how it is really a part of things people care about."
Bukiet’s wins for the AL are as follows:
AL East: Yankees – 103; Rays – 93; Red Sox – 92; Orioles – 71; Blue Jays – 70.
AL Central: Twins – 92; White Sox – 85; Tigers – 74; Royals – 72; Indians – 67.
AL West: Rangers – 82; A’s – 81; Angels – 80; Mariners – 77.
For the NL, Bukiet projects:
NL East: Phillies – 90; Braves – 88; Mets – 82; Marlins – 76; Nationals – 72;
NL Central: Cards – 91; Cubs – 86; Brewers – 78; Reds – 74; Astros – 73; Pirates – 66.
NL West: Dodgers – 88; Diamondbacks – 85; Rockies – 84; Giants – 80; Padres – 77.
Toward the end of spring training, Bukiet will post an updated list of predictions online when there is a better idea of which players will be playing regularly on each team. Results can be viewed on his Web site.
Bukiet predicts that the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers should all repeat as winners in their divisions, while the Atlanta Braves will take the wild card slot in the National League.
In the American League, the New York Yankees are expected to win in the East, while the Minnesota Twins are predicted to be repeat winners of the Central Division. The AL West is too close to call with all four teams within five wins and the Texas Rangers, Oakland A's and Los Angeles Angels are expected to win 82, 81 and 80 games respectively. The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox will have a close contest for the AL wild card slot, according to Bukiet's data.
He said the contest for primacy in the NL East should be tight with the Phillies defeating the Braves by just two games. In the West, the Los Angeles Dodgers should finish three games above the Arizona Diamondbacks. In the Central Division, the St. Louis Cardinals appear poised to achieve the best record in the NL with 91 wins, five more than the second-place Chicago Cubs.
"These results are merely a guide as to how teams ought to perform," Bukiet said. "There are many unknowns, especially trades, injuries and how rookies will perform."
Bukiet predicts that the Pittsburgh Pirates will repeat as the worst NL team with 66 wins, while the Cleveland Indians should win 67 for the bottom of the AL.
High school students Kevin Fritz, of Hillsborough, and Jack Rabner of Caldwell, assisted Bukiet with compiling the results.
The associate professor has also applied mathematical modeling to sports and gambling, in particular for understanding baseball and cricket. He is currently working on National Science Foundation projects to train math and science teachers for high-need schools and to bring computational research projects into Newark High Schools.
His mathematical model has been published in the journal Operations Research and the associate professor has appeared on CNN Headline News and Fox Radio's "Roger Hegecock Show." His model computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage.
Bukiet is an avid Mets fan and has used his model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games during the baseball season. He notes that his picks are posted for academic purposes only and have been fairly accurate six out of the nine years he has posted them.
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